Friday, October 25, 2019

Which company will change the world in a few years?

Alibaba will have the biggest impact in the world over the next 10 years because they will be the first Chinese company to get worldwide consumer traction, the way that American companies like Google and Apple have.
China is continuing to grow quickly. China recently had its slowest growth in 27 years - and it was 6.2%, more than twice the US growth rate. China is the only country other than the US with companies in the global top 10.[1] That's based almost exclusively on the Chinese domestic market. But eventually those companies are going to expand overseas.
Alibaba is in the best position to do so because its business doesn't require much trust. There are no fears of surveillance, unlike with Tencent's WeChat, and most Alibaba transactions are easily verifiable. Furthermore, Americans are used to buying cheap stuff from China and used to the kind of e-commerce platforms that Alibaba provides. Alibaba Cloud will not succeed overseas due to the trust issue.
The only real question is whether eBay, PayPal and Amazon can hold them off in the US. My belief is that they will knock out eBay and compete well with PayPal. Against Amazon, they will win only the limited niche of very cheap things, such as parts, while Amazon will continue to control the majority of spending.
Alibaba will also do very well in Asia, for obvious reasons, but also Africa, which is becoming increasingly richer and where the Chinese government has many ties. Alibaba and other Chinese companies will seize this opportunity better than the Americans.
Honorable mention for SpaceX, which I believe will land a rocket on Mars within 10 years, though probably without people on it.

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